Brandon Saad’s Pricetag Coming Into Focus

With news on New Year’s Eve that the Florida Panthers have agreed to an extension with center Nick Bjugstad, the market continues to set up for Brandon Saad to receive a nice pay day in 2015.

Brandon Saad

Four other young forwards have agreed to extensions since the beginning of October. All of them were drafted in 2010, the year before Saad was a second round selection by the Hawks, but Chicago’s young forward has stats that back up the comparisons.

Nick Bjugstad

Nick Bjugstad, Florida
Age: 22
Drafted: 2010 – 19th overall
Career Production
Regular Season: 122 games, 30 goals, 30 assists, 60 points
Postseason: 0 games
New Deal: 6 years, $4.1M cap hit

Charlie Coyle

Charlie Coyle, Minnesota
Age: 22
Drafted: 2010 – 28th overall (San Jose)
Career Production
Regular Season: 142 games, 23 goals, 35 assists, 58 points
Postseason: 18 games, 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points
New Deal: 5 years, $3.2M cap hit

Brendan Gallagher

Brendan Gallagher, Montreal
Age: 22
Drafted: 2010 – 147th overall
Career Production
Regular Season: 162 games, 44 goals, 45 assists, 89 points
Postseason: 22 games, 6 goals, 7 assists, 13 points
New Deal: 6 years, $3.75M cap hit

Ryan Johansen

Ryan Johansen, Columbus
Age: 22
Drafted: 2010 – 4th overall
Career Production
Regular Season: 224 games, 57 goals, 71 assists, 127 points
Postseason: 6 games, 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 pooints
New Deal: 3 years, $4M cap hit

Saad gm 2

Brandon Saad, Chicago
Age: 22
Drafted: 2011 – 43rd overall
Career Production
Regular Season: 163 games, 37 goals, 60 assists, 97 points
Postseason: 44 games, 7 goals, 16 assists, 23 points – 1 Stanley Cup ring
New Deal: TBD

2014-15 Stats 

  • Scoring
    Saad: 37 games, 8 goals, 15 assists, 23 points, 16:36 ATOI
    Johansen: 35 games, 10 goals, 22 assists, 32 points, 19:46 ATOI
    Bjugstad: 34 games, 13 goals, 8 assists, 21 points, 17:01 ATOI
    Gallagher: 37 games, 11 goals, 9 assists, 20 points, 15:57 ATOI
    Coyle: 34 games, 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points, 15:32 ATOI
  • Points/60 (from hockeyanalysis.com)
    Saad: 2.68
    Johansen: 1.77
    Bjugstad: 2.20
    Gallagher: 2.17
    Coyle: 1.33
  • On-Ice CORSI (from behindthenet.ca)
    Saad: 10.80
    Johansen: -4.15
    Bjugstad: 4.00
    Gallagher: 6.07
    Coyle: 5.26
  • Individual Point Percentage (from hockeyanalysis.com)
    Saad: 84.0
    Johansen: 73.7
    Bjugstad: 88.9
    Gallagher: 78.3
    Coyle: 52.6

20 thoughts on “Brandon Saad’s Pricetag Coming Into Focus

  1. Right after the new CBA was negotiated, I suggested on this site that saving one of the two available buyouts for the summer of 2014 for Hossa would be the right strategic move for the Blackhawks. I still love watching Hossa but his cap hit going out to 2021 as he continues to age, and slow down, is a big problem. If we lose Saad this summer due to a lack of cap space, that lack of strategic thinking will haunt our team for years to come. Gas may be getting cheaper but the Cdn $ continues to decline in value. The cap increase for next season will not be huge. This is a big problem. Hopefully Stan has some magic to work that my simple mind has not yet imagined.

  2. It may be just a simple case of a simple mind opining a simple explanation for something that probably isn’t this simple – but I think global politic is screwing the Chicago Blackhawks. Not directed at the Hawks, but the effect will affect the salary cap which will not be a good thing for the Hawks. My simple explanation is kind of like that old silly song which goes “the foot bone is connected to the ankle bone, the ankle bone on connected to the leg bone, the leg bone is connected to the hip bone” … and so on and on. Likewise, fracking technology has advanced to the point of making shale oil extraction profitable, OPEC lowers oil prices to counteract that competition, Canada oil export profits dive and takes the loonie with it, the decreased value of the Canadien dollar bring down HRR and with it the salary cap.

    So there you have it – a simple explanation for why the salary cap won’t rise much, if any, next year. I mean, it’s all well and good when these global shenanigans tank the Russian and Venezuelan economies, but it’s quite another thing when it affects the Hawks ability to resign Brandon Saad. That’s a bridge too far … whuch may be the answer if both sides agree – a bridge deal for Saad.

  3. Great analysis Ebony…Bettman stated 73 Million cap at an 88 cent Cndn Dollar, but it is 86 cents as of today. Assume 4 Million US for Saad..that 4.640 Cndn $’s or conversely if 4 Million Cndn thats 3.447 US $’s. Classic underway…gotta go.

  4. Break time …tied 2-2….So to get back to Ebonys comments…yes indeed everything is all connected in a global economy…wonder how Kovalchuck is feeling about his salary right now. As previously, and perhaps, radically or irresponsibly put forth, I believe in free markets and to hell with cap. I like dynasties and giant killers. Pheonix, Carolina, Florida , Winnipeg are not the equal of Chicago, New York, Toronto or Montreal…they should compete in their own way with good scouting and drafting. If it was me I would cheat..register the salaries with the league and pay unofficial real wages in cash in a brown paper bag in a coffeeshop. Buy ’em a nice vacay property in Belize or something that they take title of in 20 years. Capitalism works best with free markets and not man made artifical limits in the name of parity, Dynasties and Giant Killers will arise.

  5. Aw crap we blew the game….5 on 3 and nothing…power play with 3 minutes to go and nothing…Crawford looked bad on Brouwer goal. Special teams for Washington did us in. Me no happy.

  6. Sorry but if your going to dispose of Hoss because of age to make room for Saad its not enough . Hoss plays with more desire has more skill and is in the Hall of Fame when he retires. I will keep Hossa on my team any day rather than Saad who doesnt play with the same desire as Marian Hossa nor the amount of skill. Bronco

  7. Did Kane play in the Winter Classic i didnt hear his name called , needless to say he was invisible . The Hawks showed no emotion today 5 on 3 and nothing . not a good day to be a Hawk fan

    Bronco

  8. Mining Man -really? Actually, markets are NOT free, but that’s a discussion for a different forum.

  9. In my opinion, the Hawks at times (often?) jerk-around too much on the PP. The 5-on-3 this afternoon is an example.

  10. re: smitty’s tactic of “saving one of the two available buyouts for Hossa in 2014” would be “the right strategic moved for the Blackhawks” – no. not at all. They wouldn’t have won the Cup w/out unloading Montador & Olesz. That issue was – and should remain – dead. NO WAY they should have bought out Hossa in either of the last two summers.

  11. Except Toews and Kane Bowman did not sign nobody after entry-lever for more than 3 years. My guess for Saad is 3 year bridge contract for 11$.
    P.S. Hjalmarsson get 4 year but he did not siged with Bowman but with Wilson :-)

  12. Dickie Dunn…thanks for the feedback…I did prequalify by saying it might be radical and irresponsible, ,,,I’m sure there a plenty of shenanigans going on with all that mulla and Cups at stake. There is plenty of dirty play on the ice, real dirty play, so imagine what goes on with the big guys behind closed doors. Baseball does not have a cap…The Royals were way down the list in payroll, twenty something, San Fran was 6th highest but not even close by more than half to NYY or the Red Sox. Just saying weaker smaller markets should not have parity with the larger ones $ wise… but it is no guarantee that the big markets will win. Leave the draft the way it is but let the teams spend what they may to get to the cup. The global economy and oil prices are affecting the Can $ …Ebony got it right on with his anaology. I don’t know, I’m still cheesed at losing the Classic like that.

  13. Saader for 4.1 or 3.7 for 6yrs would be good. Doesn’t help first couple yrs cap space wise but better longterm. Seeing that guy is pt per game at 4m on 3yrs, Saader could be around that 3m for 3or2 yrs.

    Oil/gas prices usually go up during the warmer mths of the yr. I read somewhere for every .01 (Canadian dollar) its about 250k in salarycap. So .88 is 73m, then .85 is 72.37m. With .855 being the predicted about at that time in the summer.

  14. They’re going to need to ditch Bickell, he’s heavily overpaid anyways. I really think resigning Saad should be a high priority.

  15. Mining Man – the NHL wants parity (good for the game and fans everywhere) and the Cap seems to work. The NHL is definitely not like MLB. (My comment was directed at Capitalism/”Free” Markets – Capitalism doesn’t really work except for the “Investment Class”, the Markets are rigged, and the discussion is suited for a different forum.)

    I agree about losing…they talk about “keep it simple” and then jerk-around…the PPs and Keith’s behind-the-back drop pass turnover, etc. I don’t blame Crawford – this was a team loss. Any word on Versteeg?

    I believe we’ll see a better effort Sunday.

  16. The Saader love on this site is pretty amazing. He’s a nice player but hardly a top six stud. His production is almost solely due to his top line minutes. Whenever he’s moved to the 3rd line, he basically disappears. Unless the Hawks can dump the Bickell contract, overpaying for Saad will doom them to Pittsburgh relevancy – okay during the regular season but losers in the playoffs.

    Saad will “never” be a difference maker and shouldn’t be paid like one. Save the $4mil+ contracts for true stars. You’ve already seen what happens when you give one of those contracts to a role player (ie Bickell).

    McNeil (my preference), Hartman, – heck move Brennan up front. All those are comparable

  17. Nobody knows what the Cap will be and what SB is going to do. My biggest hope is that the Hawks retain their highly skilled young players. For example, I would hate to see Sharp, Seabrook or Hoss in a different sweater. However, if Sharp’s $5.9mm has to go to retain Saad, Kruger and Nordstrom I think you gotta do it.

    The board here wants to use Bickell’s $4mm, but it is hard to let go of one of the few skilled “big” guys on the team. That said, he is expendable to save Saad IMO.

  18. Love the input I have lots of faith in Stan, already figuring gone will be Richards, Oduya, Rosival, Kreuger. I think possible trade options would be Crawford or Bickel and I am a fan of both. Think one deal will be made in the summer to fit Saad and whatever we need to fill out the lineup. I figured Saad would end up in the 4 mil. range before I read this. And I believe we have not seen the end of the K. Hayes type moves coming, going forward. With as much turnover as we are going to have, I expect Q won’t have a choice but to play the Hogs coming up. Speaking of Hogs, I really wish the Hogs games were on TV here instead of those Blues/Wolves.

  19. Hawkfacts, you can make a good argument that Saad may never be a true top line guy. But keeping him is a priority none the less. Trading Sharp for Saad is only part of the equation. Hawks have a few 3/4 line players they need to resign as well. The top line or even top 2 lines are only as good as the 3d and 4th line allow them to be. I am willing to sacrifice a Top 6 to retain 3 bottom 9s. Saad is just one of those 3

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