What Is Artemi Panarin Worth?
Reports on Tuesday are that Blackhawks forward and reigning Calder Trophy winner Artemi Panarin wants a six-year deal worth $6M per season. Hawks GM Stan Bowman was asked about Panarin at training camp and, predictably, declined comment beyond saying “they’re working on it.”
Which, of course, begs the question: what is Panarin worth?
Let’s look at 10 recent contracts from around the NHL that compare favorably to what Panarin is asking.
(Note: We are not including Jamie Benn’s eight-year extension from this summer because he is the Stars’ captain. His cap hit will be $9M per for that deal, however.)
- The Market for Panarin
Artemi Panarin
Age: 24
NHL Career: 80 games, 30 goals, 47 assists, 77 points
Vladimir Tarasenko – 8 years, $7.5M AAV (signed July 7, 2015)
Age: 24
NHL Career: 259 games, 109 goals, 103 assists, 212 points
Sean Monahan – 7 years, $6.375M AAV (signed Aug. 19, 2016)
Age: 21
NHL Career: 237 games, 80 goals, 79 assists, 159 points
Nathan MacKinnon – 7 years, $6.3M AAV (signed July 8, 2016)
Age: 21
NHL Career: 218 games, 59 goals, 94 assists, 153 points
Mark Scheifele – 8 years, $6.125M AAV (signed July 8, 2016)
Age: 23
NHL Career: 227 games, 58 goals, 87 assists, 145 points
Brandon Saad – 6 years, $6M AAV (signed July 5, 2015)
Age: 23
NHL Career: 286 games, 83 goals, 96 assists, 179 points
Filip Forsberg – 6 years, $6M AAV (signed June 27, 2016)
Age: 22
NHL Career: 182 games, 60 goals, 73 assists, 133 points
Aleksander Barkov – 6 years, $5.9M AAV (signed Jan. 25, 2016)
Age: 21
NHL Career: 191 games, 52 goals, 67 assists, 119 points
Jaden Schwartz – 5 years, $5.35M AAV (signed July 15, 2016)
Age: 24
NHL Career: 240 games, 70 goals, 87 assists, 157 points
Brayden Schenn – 4 years, $5.25M AAV (signed July 25, 2016)
Age: 25
NHL Career: 354 games, 84 goals, 109 assists, 193 points
Marcus Johansson – 3 years, $4,583,333 AAV (signed July 20, 2016)
Age: 25
NHL Career: 419 games, 78 goals, 154 assists, 232 points
This is a tough one for me. Was Panarin the main reason Kane had an MVP year or was Kane the main reason Panarin won the Calder? Hard to tell in just one season.
Nonetheless, since he is in his prime, he appears to be worth between 6m and 6.5m to me. Unfortunately, more than the Hawks can afford.
Interesting situation for us casual fans to wait and watch. No doubt about his skill, but as BLS wrote about #88 and him paired above was the Hart Trophy the result of Panarin, or vice versa? I would say one was not mutually exclusive of the other, rather both complimented each other. To me the answer could be reunite #19 and #88 to give two lines with big scoring potential. What happens then? Small decrease in production or possible increase makes him worthy of that type of payday. In my humble opinion.
I can’t wait to read the trade him suggestions.
“Unfortunately, more than the Hawks can afford.” — difficult to say at this point. His new contract will not start until next year. A lot can happen before then, including the expansion draft. We’ll see. (In my opinion, $6 million seems reasonable considering the salaries of the players listed above.)
Kane/Panarin is one of the most dynamic duos in the league. They both make each other better. 6 mil seems very reasonable to me. The Hawks do not have many highly offensively skilled forwards so I expect Stan will do what it takes to sign him.
I’d offer 2 years at 4 per and the third year at 6 with incentives, the expansion draft is next year so….
You don’t need a PhD in Applied Mathematics to understand that paying Panarin after this season is going to be extraordinarily difficult for the Hawks to make work. This is Brandon Saad situation all over again. If Panarin loosely approaches last year’s performance this season, then there will be a handful of teams lined up to pay him $7 M plus per season. Maybe even closer to $8 M.
Probability of Panarin being a Blackhawk after the 2017 Stanley Cup playoffs? I’d put the odds at very low.
It is what is. Bowman has adapted to these situations before and will do so again.
The link you provide states that he us seeking at least 6M. To simply state that what he wants is 6M is misleading to say the least.
With Panarin’s bonuses hitting the cap at aprox 2.8 mil plus his $825,000 salary you re only talking an additional 2.4 mil to keep him under the cap that they are paying him now. Assuming he gets 6 mil per. After this year we lose the 1.125 mil hit we are pay Rob Scuderi as well. If Bowman can’t find a way to trade Anisimov or an aging Seabrook by next year then I am sure he will get creative enough to find the difference (est 1.3 mil after Scuderi hit leaves). Especially after the Saad loss I believe he will not let this happen again. Not to mention a recurring increase in annual cap of approx 2 mil that’s been consistent as of late. Panarin will get signed. Maybe he gets 7 or 8 years at 5.75 mil
Been through this “what if” to many times with this team. Would have rather have keep Brandon Saad. Stan will do what he feels is best.
to the “they should have kept Brandon Saad” crowd that’s starting already – stop. That will be 2 seasons before Panarin’s next contract begins. The cap has gone up and will continue to go up and the Hawks were in a tougher spot financially when he left than they are now (or will be next summer).
also, this is NOT Brandon Saad all over again. Saad didn’t go public w/ a 6x$6M contract ask 10 months before hitting RFA.
re: trading Seabrook – highly unlikely. they love him and rightfully so. give him a year next to Campbell instead of babysitting the likes of Gustafsson, Svedberg and Rundblad and see how many people want to run him out of town still.
re: trading Anisimov – hard to deal a guy w/ a no-move clause. not impossible, but he has one and that’s something they would have to navigate IF they wanted to trade away the 2C they had coveted since permanently moving Patrick Sharp to wing.
If his production is anywhere near what he did last year, 6 years at 6mil per will be a bargain. Maybe turn the equation backwards and ask what kind of production one would expect from a LW making 6 Million a year? Last year, the top 40 forwards made 6 Million per year or more. Last year the top 40 forwards scored at least 60 points (Ryan Johanson 14 goals and 46 assists.)
Would that be an adequate benchmark for a player like Panarin earning that kind of salary? 60 points per year?
Look at marchands extension and the 6m/yr contracts signed at free agent deadline this summer, i don t see it as an unreasonable request at all and as far as finding it if bowman has a will to he’ll find a way.
Benn’s current deal is 5.25 not the deal he just signed which has a 9.5 hit. If hed sign 6 for 36 you do it. I had read he wants “at least 6 per”.
3 things come into play regarding next year’s cap. First, Panarin’s bonus schedule goes down slightly. If he doesn’t hit the big bonuses that helps. What hurts is Campbell’s bonus as he only needs to play 10 games to hit it. Second, expansion. Teams can ask players with NMCs to be moved. I’ve yet to see confirmed if the recapture would still be applied if a player is taken via expansion. Regardless, this could very well be Hossa’s last year…either LTIR or otherwise. Kruger could also be exposed. Third, the cap going up. The league gets the dollars from the world cup….which would be applied to the cap.
Panarin’s hit would be 5.2 higher than it currently. No 1.125 for Scuderi. Down to 4.1 more. Cap increases 3 million due to world cup and a better Canadian dollar (hit a 6mth low today) 5% escalator could be invoked as well. 1.1 is the difference. Lower overage if he’s not top 10 and slightly more space than last to lessen the overage. Say 1.5 for shits and gigs. +.400. Loss of Kruger via expansion,+3.5. Loss of Hossa via LTIR or expansion +8.75. LTIR still has issues as the team has to be below the cap start the year to place a player on LTIR…but it’s better than the recapture. Maybe you beg and plead with Arizona to LTIR him for you so that doesn’t happen.
Regardless, there’s ways the cap can still be manipulated. LOTS of parts we don’t even know about. If he’d sign for 6@6per….do it. Now! Also, for all you Seabrook haters. He just put up his 2nd best offensive season while babysitting Victor freaking Svedberg (Lurch). Guys of his ilk are extremely valuable and you just don’t trade them….not without something close in the pipeline. Everyone wants size on the backend. Nobody in the pipeline can replace what he brings. Nobody plays that style except maybe Dahlstrom.
DH8- depending on source Panarin’s bonuses decrease by 225k this year. From 2.8 to 2.575. not a ton, but not insignificant.
Also, Panarin’s current AAV is 812,500. Bonuses are added on after the year. He could get hurt, miss the year and not hit any of those. Or…he could hit every one get his 2.575. Campbell plays 10 games and gets his 750k. Schmaltz hits and gets 350. Maybe Pokka gets some of his 850k. Kempny could be due 437,500. Almost 5 million in potential bonuses that could be applied to next year’s cap. So no. It isn’t just a 2 million dollar raise. Think of it as a 1 year cap hit of 8.5 million. Because that’s what it would be if his whole 2.575 has to be carried as an overage.
The NHL either needs to get rid of the hard cap or get rid of the teams that can’t be profitable. The hard cap is a form of socialism for the teams that don’t have the money to compete. Capitalism isn’t all things to all participants. That’s like having a poker game, but you’re going to have the rules modified to keep you in the game if you don’t have the financial wherewithal to play the hand that was dealt you.
The NHL needs to wake up and realize they will never compete in market share viewers as the other three major sports do. There’s nothing that is right or wrong about that. That’s just a simple fact that hockey is more of a niche sport, as opposed to a mass appeal that the other sports have. I love hockey and it’s my favorite sport to watch. But even after the Hawks have overhauled their team completely from the farm system up, they are still having difficulty turning a profit simply because they don’t have the TV revenues to help subsidize their operating costs. It’s as aggravating as hell to watch how they have righted the ship and the direction of the organization to only have to watch them tear it down for being successful! It get’s tiring year after year of how can we juggle the books to be competitive instead of focusing on how and whom we can look forward to add to
the team to win another cup!
Last thought before I actually do something this evening. Say sign him for 6. Advanced stat people say when Panarin was paired with someone other than Kane the drop off in his (72) production was substantial. You pair Kane with 19. Keep Panarin off that line. Manipulate Panarin’s production enough to where he hits some of the minutes played bonuses. But not the big top ten forward in points bonuses. That’s a non payout for next year of 1.725.
So if i follow you ernie your saying it could be in the $11m cap hit range to cover pinarins bonuses and salary for next year assuming its in $6m range and all other possible bonuses from this year before you get to next years signings
Absolute worst case scenario when everyone hits bonuses. Campbell is all but guaranteed as it’s a 10 games played 750k bonus.
Panarin-2.575
Campbell-.750
Kempny-.43750
Schmaltz- .350
Gustafson-.2575
Hinostroza-.2575
Pokka- .850
Lundberg-.25750
Kero- .25750
Those are guys that could see at least some time that have bonuses tied to them. How likely they are to hit those is up for interpretation. Interesting Motte and Hartman do no have bonuses tied to them. Only ELC’s and over 35 deals are bonus eligible. Bonus dollars do not count against the cap in the current year. They are added after completion of the season. If a team has space left after the league year bonus dollars are first removed from that year. Any dollars they go over that is removed from the next year’s cap hit as an overage penalty at a dollar for dollar rate. So if the Hawks spend to the absolute max have zero left at the end of the season they would have every bonus dollar paid in 16/17 as a hit on 17/18.
Also, another thing to factor is the bonus cushion. That is the max allowed bonus overage. Which is something they’d have to worry about if Vesey had signed for a max bonus deal. The bonus cushion states you can’t go over the cap due to bonuses by more than 7.5 percent of the salary cap. So 5.43 million.
6m+5.43=11.43-.8125=10.6175 million if the max bonus overage is used and using 6 million for a Panarin salary. However, the likelihood of hitting that high an overage is slim. Panarin has 2 bonus types. The first being games played, so he’s all but assured to hit 850k in those. The next are performance based valued at 212.5k each maxing out at 1.725. (minutes,ppg,trophies,etc.) Oddly, I don’t believe the Calder was named but being on the rookie team was for last year. Apologies on the length.
I got a little sick just by Tab mentioning Rundblad.
Do it.
5 years at 5.750M$
This is a no brainer..pay him.
Period, over and out. Then give thanks.
Pay him something close to his ask price . No brainer. He is a rare talent and he is tough . Gotta find a way to keep him . Period . By the time his contract hits year 2 he will be at below market value and a good deal for the Hawks .
Completely agree with Mining Man and Chelsea!!
Yes 6 years at $6 million seems pretty reasonable to me, Kucherov and Johnny Hockey are looking for much more than that
Had Sirius on my way in this morning. Caught the end of Bowman talking about how Panik and Schmaltz are skilled enough to play either wing. It’s interesting hearing an unbiased view, but they were not impress with Kempny at the World cup. “Lots of ugly turnovers”. They did think Hossa had looked good though.
Thought by comment he was quoted on forsling being a possibility yesterday was referring to kempnys play at wcoh being a concern. His speed and decision making looked like he has a ways to go before he can help the hawks.
Agreed with the thinking if Panarin wants 6 x $6mm…..LOCK HIM UP NOW. That is a manageable risk for what should look like a bargain in just a couple of years. A nucleus of 19, 88 and 72 for the next 7 years makes me happy.
I also think the long term thinking was letting Shaw go to pay 72
Sorry Tab I will keep my Brandon Saad membership quiet from here on out.
A few thoughts on Kempny and Forsling. 1st Kempny didnt have the best tournament but that is tough competition to be playing against. Unless there are a ton of injuries Kempny is not going to be facing top 6 forwards every night as he was at the WCH. Forsling is very interesting. IF he has really taken the huge strides that everyone seems to believe the Hawks will find a place for him.
I expect both he and Kempny in the lineup tonight so we should get an idea of how good he is. I saw Forsling at the rookie camp and my impression was meh overall. He did however have several plays where he flashed and made excellent plays so I can see the excitement.
Give Forsling a handful while Keith recuperates. Send him back to Europe and let the deal slide. Bring him over next year when Campbell and possibly Kempny and TVR is also gone. Then you’ve got him in your top 4 full time for 3 full years on an ELC deal. You do not want to burn a year if you don’t have to.
For the Saad fans… If Jarmo calls up Stan and says straight up Saad for Panarin after the season. Any takers? It would then be 4 years at 6 per for Saad. Or sign Panarin for 6@6. I’m taking Panarin.
It was reported that he wanted 6 at more than 6 per. That was his ask. Can he be talked down to 6 or possibly less?
I agree forsling plays in europe this year and slides unless help is needed for the playoffs and they recall him late in the season.
Panarin is more offensively skilled then Saad. Better shot, better passer and softer hands. No way I trade away Panarin for Saad.
I think Hawks will make him a offer at 5.5 /5 or 6 years ..
Forsling will go direct to his country then will come back at the end of the year
Kempny will do the job after ajusting to the small ice surface ..and will probably be a very good dman by the end of the year …
Motte,Schmaltz ,Hartman,Fortin,Pokka ,Hino, Rasm ,will be playing sometime with the Hawks before making a deal to get a more older player for the Playoff..Hartman ,Pokka,Rasm will be gone before the year end …except iff they are really really good ..i have my dought..
I also have my doubts on Rasmussen. Hartman can serve a bottom 6 role. I would be all but shocked if Fortin made the team. Nothing bad happens if he’s down in Rockford the entire year. His contract slides. He gains experience. I’d look at Motte,Mcneil, Hartman to start the year. I just don’t think Hinostroza has enough skill to be top 6. I don’t think his game fits a bottom 6 role.
^ Fortin can not and will not play in Rockford this season. Bowman was very specific about the issue, it’s on video on the Blackhawks site.
If he plays back in the Quebec league as I suspect, his contract slides a year. Remember Bowman et al does not like to rush prospects.
re: Forsling – I wouldn’t be shocked if, in the event he has a good camp, he gets a few NHL games w/ Keith sitting to open the regular season before they make a decision (see Leddy, Nick – 2010)
I believe fortin has to go back to the Q because of his age and he will. Sounds like hinostroza and hartman will get a chance to show what they can do out the gate and schmaltz and/or motte may depending if macneil gets his opportunity to show what he can do right away.
I think Rayh has it right remember the owners wanted a hard cap this includes the Wirtz family. Whats the difference between Bill Wirtz being a cheap skate and Rocky going along with a hard cap